Sunday is the better winch day: dry with light NE wind along the strip, but grey with low cloud.
Updated: 16/10 00:18
Sat 17 Oct
No: too much wind at the top of the tow, gusts to 17 kt and showers with thunder risk
no
Confidence high
Wind: 10 kt
/ 18 kt (Gust)
Direction: N
Rain: showers
Ceiling (estimate): 1100 m
Thermals: Moderate
Not a winch day. The north wind is 6–10 kt at the ground, but at the top of the tow (about 750 m) it blows 20–24 kt in the morning and still 17–18 kt in the afternoon. From midday gusts reach 15–17 kt, with about 6 kt of crosswind on the strip.
Showers are possible from 15:00 with a risk of thunder, and some rain around 17:00. The models agree on the northerly; ALARO (KMI) has even stronger gusts, 19–25 kt.
These tables show the model data the text of 16/10 00:18 was based on.
Sat 17 Oct
| 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assessment | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: gusts too strong | no: gusts too strong | no: gusts too strong | no: gusts too strong, rain, wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong |
| Wind (kt) | 5.7 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 6.8 |
| Direction | NNW | NNW | NNW | N | N | N | N | N | N | NNW | NNW |
| Gust (kt) | 10 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 12 |
| Crosswind (kt) | 5 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.9 |
| Wind 925 hPa (kt)≈ 750 m | 24 | 23 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
| Weather | 3% | 3% | 15% | 0.1 mm18% | 0.1 mm20% | 0.1 mm25% | 0.1 mm18% | 20% | 0.2 mm8% | 8% | |
| Low Cloud % | 47% | 43% | 42% | 2% | 40% | 59% | 83% | 28% | 55% | 2% | 0% |
| Ceiling (estimate) | 227 m | 286 m | 355 m | 638 m ☁ | 800 m ☁ | 1088 m ☁ | 1125 m ☁ | 1012 m ☁ | 426 m | 500 m | 162 m |
| Thermals (m/s, estimate) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
- Calm
- Light to moderate
- Strong but good
- Borderline
- Borderline, strong
- Too strong
Altitude profile and thermals (estimate) — Sat 17 Oct Wind per height above sea level (the field is at about 100 m) and estimated climb rate from the ICON model (including the heat flux). A rough estimate: meteo-parapente remains the reference for thermals and ceiling. Under the wind is the expected temperature at that height (°C); the ground row shows the wind at 10 m and the temperature at 2 m above the field.
| m AMSL (kt, °C) | 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 21-3° | 26-3° | 22-3° | 21-3° | 21-3° | 19-3° | 17-3° | 17-3° | 17-3° | 17-3° | 17-3° |
| 1750 | 22-1° | 27-1° | 23-1° | 21-1° | 21-1° | 18-1° | 17-1° | 16-1° | 17-1° | 17-1° | 17-1° |
| 1500 | 231° | 281° | 241° | 221° | 201° | 171° | 161° | 151° | 170° | 171° | 171° |
| 1250 | 233° | 273° | 243° | 223° | 203° | 163° | 173° | 163° | 183° | 173° | 173° |
| 1000 | 244° | 265° | 245° | 225° | 195° | 155° | 175° | 175° | 185° | 185° | 175° |
| 750 | 246° | 257° | 247° | 227° | 187° | 137° | 187° | 177° | 197° | 197° | 177° |
| 500 | 248° | 229° | 229° | 198° | 139° | 1210° | 1610° | 1710° | 209° | 159° | 159° |
| 250 | 159° | 129° | 109° | 1110° | 1111° | 1112° | 1212° | 1512° | 1610° | 1111° | 1211° |
| ground (100 m) | 59° | 410° | 611° | 712° | 713° | 814° | 714° | 814° | 812° | 512° | 410° |
- Climb (m/s):
- 0.0–0.5
- 0.5–1.0
- 1.0–1.5
- 1.5–2.0
- 2.0–2.5
- 2.5–3.0
- 3.0–3.5
- 3.5–4.0
- ceiling
- 1350 m AMSL: airspace limit (climb-outs)
Model Comparison — Sat 17 Oct Wind and, in small print, gusts per model; the arrow points where the wind blows to.ICON: German weather service (DWD). Blends ICON-D2 (2 km) for the first 2 days with ICON-EU (7 km) and the global model (13 km); reaches about 7 days.ECMWF: European centre ECMWF, global model (here at 25 km). Often the most reliable for the overall weather pattern; reaches 15 days.GFS: US weather service (NOAA), global model (13–25 km); reaches 16 days.AROME: Météo-France: AROME (1.3–2.5 km) for the first 2 days, then ARPEGE; reaches about 4 days.HARMONIE: Dutch weather service (KNMI), HARMONIE-AROME (2–5.5 km) for about 2.5 days; further ahead based on ECMWF (up to 15 days).ICON-D2: DWD, 2 km over Germany and the Benelux, about 2 days ahead.AROME HD: Météo-France, 1.3 km, about 2 days ahead.HARMONIE NL: KNMI, 2 km, about 2.5 days ahead.UKMO 2 km: UK Met Office, 2 km, about 2 days ahead.ALARO: Belgian weather service (KMI/IRM), about 4 km, up to 2.5 days ahead. Open data, CC BY 4.0: opendata.meteo.beOnly ICON, ECMWF, GFS, AROME and HARMONIE count towards the assessment. A model that does not reach this day gets no row; – means it does not reach that hour. Under each model name is when the model run shown started and when it came online at Open-Meteo. The ceiling rows show each model’s estimate (the lower of the boundary-layer height and the cloud base, above sea level); the text gives a range when they differ a lot.
| Model (kt) | 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Used in the assessment | |||||||||||
| ICONrun 15/10 20:00online 15/10 21:25 | 58 | 49 | 611 | 712 | 714 | 817 | 717 | 818 | 825 | 513 | 410 |
| ECMWFrun 15/10 14:00online 15/10 22:00 | 610 | 612 | 714 | 816 | 918 | 919 | 919 | 918 | 917 | 816 | 814 |
| GFSrun 15/10 14:00online 15/10 23:51 | 416 | 617 | 916 | 1116 | 1216 | 1216 | 1215 | 1114 | 1112 | 1217 | 1020 |
| AROMErun 15/10 17:00online 15/10 20:58 | 69 | 813 | 814 | 1015 | 1117 | 1017 | 1017 | 1118 | 617 | 521 | 712 |
| HARMONIErun 15/10 21:00online 15/10 23:39 | 916 | 615 | 612 | 612 | 712 | 1119 | 919 | 817 | 614 | 611 | 510 |
| Extra: high resolution and KMI (not in the assessment) | |||||||||||
| ICON-D2run 15/10 20:00online 15/10 21:25 | 58 | 49 | 611 | 712 | 714 | 817 | 717 | 818 | 825 | 513 | 39 |
| AROME HD | 69 | 813 | 814 | 1015 | 1117 | 1017 | 1017 | 1118 | 617 | 322 | 68 |
| HARMONIE NLrun 15/10 21:00online 15/10 23:36 | 916 | 615 | 612 | 612 | 712 | 1119 | 919 | 817 | 614 | 611 | 510 |
| UKMO 2 kmrun 15/10 19:00online 15/10 23:30 | 511 | 612 | 816 | 815 | 816 | 816 | 917 | 918 | 714 | 715 | 613 |
| ALARO (KMI)run 15/10 14:00 | 819 | 718 | 919 | 920 | 1021 | 921 | 1123 | 1023 | 925 | 920 | 824 |
| Ceiling (estimate, m above sea level) | |||||||||||
| ICON | 350 m | 400 m | 425 m | 638 m | 800 m | 1087 m | 1125 m | 1012 m | 762 m | 875 m | 612 m |
| ECMWF | 262 m | 337 m | 450 m | 638 m | 850 m | 1025 m | 1050 m | 1000 m | 912 m | 800 m | 675 m |
| GFS | 375 m | 450 m | 788 m | 962 m | 1112 m | 1312 m | 1538 m | 1650 m | 1525 m | 625 m | 445 m |
| AROME | 388 m | 513 m | 612 m | 800 m | 1062 m | 1175 m | 1288 m | 1225 m | 762 m | 650 m | 613 m |
| HARMONIE | 250 m | 288 m | 275 m | 263 m | 213 m | 237 m | 225 m | 250 m | 225 m | 250 m | 250 m |
Latest model data, newer than the text of 16/10 00:18. The numbers and colours can differ from the description and verdict above.
Sat 17 Oct
| 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assessment | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: gusts too strong, wind at the top of the tow too strong | no: gusts too strong | no: gusts too strong | no: gusts too strong | marginal: gusts borderline, models disagree on wind speed, wind at the top of the tow borderline | marginal: gusts borderline, models disagree on wind speed, wind at the top of the tow borderline | no: wind at the top of the tow too strong |
| Wind (kt) | 6 | 6 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 |
| Direction | NNW | NNW | NNW | N | N | NNE | N | N | N | N | NNW |
| Gust (kt) | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 12 |
| Crosswind (kt) | 5.7 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 7 | 6 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 5.3 |
| Wind 925 hPa (kt)≈ 750 m | 24 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 19 |
| Weather | 3% | 3% | 15% | 18% | 20% | 0.1 mm25% | 18% | 20% | 8% | 8% | |
| Low Cloud % | 72% | 3% | 0% | 13% | 66% | 38% | 50% | 37% | 0% | 4% | 50% |
| Ceiling (estimate) | 246 m | 342 m | 662 m ☁ | 800 m ☁ | 900 m ☁ | 1150 m ☁ | 1188 m ☁ | 717 m | 900 m ☁ | 925 m ☁ | 168 m |
| Thermals (m/s, estimate) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
- Calm
- Light to moderate
- Strong but good
- Borderline
- Borderline, strong
- Too strong
Altitude profile and thermals (estimate) — Sat 17 Oct Wind per height above sea level (the field is at about 100 m) and estimated climb rate from the ICON model (including the heat flux). A rough estimate: meteo-parapente remains the reference for thermals and ceiling. Under the wind is the expected temperature at that height (°C); the ground row shows the wind at 10 m and the temperature at 2 m above the field.
| m AMSL (kt, °C) | 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 20-3° | 23-3° | 23-3° | 23-3° | 20-3° | 20-3° | 18-3° | 17-3° | 16-3° | 16-3° | 19-3° |
| 1750 | 21-1° | 23-1° | 23-1° | 23-2° | 19-1° | 20-2° | 17-2° | 17-1° | 16-1° | 16-1° | 19-1° |
| 1500 | 221° | 231° | 221° | 230° | 180° | 190° | 160° | 171° | 160° | 161° | 190° |
| 1250 | 233° | 233° | 233° | 222° | 172° | 182° | 152° | 173° | 173° | 153° | 183° |
| 1000 | 245° | 235° | 235° | 224° | 174° | 175° | 155° | 185° | 185° | 135° | 165° |
| 750 | 257° | 237° | 247° | 216° | 166° | 157° | 147° | 197° | 187° | 127° | 147° |
| 500 | 229° | 229° | 229° | 169° | 159° | 149° | 139° | 189° | 169° | 119° | 159° |
| 250 | 1410° | 1410° | 1210° | 1311° | 1411° | 1312° | 1512° | 1811° | 1611° | 1011° | 1011° |
| ground (100 m) | 510° | 611° | 712° | 813° | 913° | 914° | 814° | 512° | 713° | 412° | 411° |
- Climb (m/s):
- 0.0–0.5
- 0.5–1.0
- 1.0–1.5
- 1.5–2.0
- 2.0–2.5
- 2.5–3.0
- 3.0–3.5
- 3.5–4.0
- ceiling
- 1350 m AMSL: airspace limit (climb-outs)
Model Comparison — Sat 17 Oct Wind and, in small print, gusts per model; the arrow points where the wind blows to.ICON: German weather service (DWD). Blends ICON-D2 (2 km) for the first 2 days with ICON-EU (7 km) and the global model (13 km); reaches about 7 days.ECMWF: European centre ECMWF, global model (here at 25 km). Often the most reliable for the overall weather pattern; reaches 15 days.GFS: US weather service (NOAA), global model (13–25 km); reaches 16 days.AROME: Météo-France: AROME (1.3–2.5 km) for the first 2 days, then ARPEGE; reaches about 4 days.HARMONIE: Dutch weather service (KNMI), HARMONIE-AROME (2–5.5 km) for about 2.5 days; further ahead based on ECMWF (up to 15 days).ICON-D2: DWD, 2 km over Germany and the Benelux, about 2 days ahead.AROME HD: Météo-France, 1.3 km, about 2 days ahead.HARMONIE NL: KNMI, 2 km, about 2.5 days ahead.UKMO 2 km: UK Met Office, 2 km, about 2 days ahead.ALARO: Belgian weather service (KMI/IRM), about 4 km, up to 2.5 days ahead. Open data, CC BY 4.0: opendata.meteo.beOnly ICON, ECMWF, GFS, AROME and HARMONIE count towards the assessment. A model that does not reach this day gets no row; – means it does not reach that hour. Under each model name is when the model run shown started and when it came online at Open-Meteo. The ceiling rows show each model’s estimate (the lower of the boundary-layer height and the cloud base, above sea level); the text gives a range when they differ a lot.
| Model (kt) | 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Used in the assessment | |||||||||||
| ICONrun 16/10 02:00online 16/10 03:25 | 59 | 610 | 712 | 815 | 919 | 919 | 818 | 519 | 714 | 412 | 47 |
| ECMWFrun 15/10 20:00online 16/10 03:24 | 612 | 613 | 714 | 715 | 818 | 919 | 919 | 919 | 918 | 816 | 612 |
| GFSrun 15/10 20:00online 16/10 02:52 | 621 | 820 | 918 | 1117 | 1215 | 1215 | 1316 | 1215 | 1214 | 1015 | 817 |
| AROMErun 15/10 23:00online 16/10 03:12 | 1017 | 814 | 915 | 1016 | 1118 | 1118 | 1219 | 721 | 1020 | 718 | 812 |
| HARMONIErun 16/10 00:00online 16/10 02:36 | 611 | 611 | 814 | 917 | 1018 | 1019 | 1020 | 918 | 616 | 511 | 422 |
| Extra: high resolution and KMI (not in the assessment) | |||||||||||
| ICON-D2run 16/10 02:00online 16/10 03:25 | 59 | 610 | 712 | 815 | 919 | 919 | 818 | 519 | 714 | 412 | 47 |
| AROME HDrun 15/10 23:00online 16/10 03:08 | 1017 | 814 | 915 | 1016 | 1118 | 1118 | 1219 | 721 | 1020 | 718 | 812 |
| HARMONIE NLrun 16/10 00:00online 16/10 02:36 | 611 | 611 | 814 | 917 | 1018 | 1019 | 1020 | 918 | 616 | 511 | 422 |
| UKMO 2 kmrun 15/10 22:00online 16/10 02:24 | 611 | 713 | 715 | 918 | 816 | 815 | 815 | 917 | 714 | 815 | 612 |
| ALARO (KMI)run 15/10 20:00 | 718 | 614 | 716 | 819 | 1020 | 920 | 920 | 921 | 920 | 919 | 718 |
| Ceiling (estimate, m above sea level) | |||||||||||
| ICON | 338 m | 425 m | 662 m | 800 m | 900 m | 1150 m | 1188 m | 1012 m | 900 m | 925 m | 687 m |
| ECMWF | 250 m | 338 m | 450 m | 612 m | 850 m | 1025 m | 1125 m | 1125 m | 1012 m | 812 m | 588 m |
| GFS | 313 m | 562 m | 788 m | 1025 m | 1175 m | 1312 m | 1350 m | 1412 m | 1375 m | 640 m | 300 m |
| AROME | 300 m | 325 m | 387 m | 512 m | 775 m | 1025 m | 1062 m | 875 m | 937 m | 638 m | 763 m |
| HARMONIE | 338 m | 312 m | 513 m | 588 m | 850 m | 538 m | 563 m | 688 m | 688 m | 688 m | 525 m |
Sun 18 Oct
Marginal: dry with light NE wind along the strip, but grey with a low cloud base
marginal
Provisional
Confidence medium
Best window 13:00–17:00
Wind: 7 kt
/ 11 kt (Gust)
Direction: NE
Ceiling (estimate): 750 m
Thermals: Weak
A marginal winch day. The wind is light, 5–7 kt from the northeast and so right along the strip, with gusts around 10–11 kt (ECMWF and HARMONIE up to 14–15 kt). At the top of the tow (about 750 m) the wind eases from 16–17 kt in the morning to about 12 kt from 13:00.
Dry but grey: the cloud is very low in the morning, and between 13:00 and 17:00 the models estimate the ceiling at about 450–1050 m, with ICON and GFS highest. Little thermal activity. Still a provisional forecast.
Wind map At the field, one needle per model, pointing where the wind blows and longer for more wind, with the mean wind and the gust (G). Pick an hour with the slider or click an hour in a table.
The map could not load; the tables below still work.
These tables show the model data the text of 16/10 00:18 was based on.
Sun 18 Oct
| 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assessment | marginal: models disagree on wind speed, wind at the top of the tow borderline | marginal: models disagree on wind speed, wind at the top of the tow borderline | marginal: wind at the top of the tow borderline | marginal: models disagree on wind speed, wind at the top of the tow borderline | good | marginal: models disagree on direction | good | marginal: models disagree on wind speed | marginal: models disagree on wind speed | marginal: models disagree on wind speed | marginal: models disagree on wind speed, wind at the top of the tow borderline |
| Wind (kt) | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Direction | NNE | NNE | NNE | NE | ENE | ENE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE |
| Gust (kt) | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| Crosswind (kt) | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Wind 925 hPa (kt)≈ 750 m | 16 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| Weather | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 8% | |||
| Low Cloud % | 65% | 51% | 76% | 55% | 53% | 50% | 35% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Ceiling (estimate) | 112 m ☁ | 213 m ☁ | 412 m ☁ | 625 m ☁ | 812 m ☁ | 862 m ☁ | 925 m ☁ | 975 m ☁ | 975 m ☁ | 841 m | 167 m |
| Thermals (m/s, estimate) | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
- Calm
- Light to moderate
- Strong but good
- Borderline
- Borderline, strong
- Too strong
Altitude profile and thermals (estimate) — Sun 18 Oct Wind per height above sea level (the field is at about 100 m) and estimated climb rate from the ICON model (including the heat flux). A rough estimate: meteo-parapente remains the reference for thermals and ceiling. Under the wind is the expected temperature at that height (°C); the ground row shows the wind at 10 m and the temperature at 2 m above the field.
| m AMSL (kt, °C) | 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 11-2° | 12-3° | 11-3° | 10-2° | 9-3° | 9-3° | 7-3° | 8-3° | 8-3° | 7-3° | 7-3° |
| 1750 | 14-1° | 13-1° | 12-1° | 10-1° | 10-2° | 9-1° | 8-1° | 8-2° | 8-2° | 7-2° | 7-2° |
| 1500 | 160° | 140° | 130° | 120° | 110° | 90° | 80° | 80° | 70° | 60° | 70° |
| 1250 | 141° | 132° | 122° | 112° | 91° | 72° | 62° | 72° | 62° | 62° | 72° |
| 1000 | 123° | 113° | 103° | 103° | 83° | 53° | 53° | 63° | 63° | 64° | 74° |
| 750 | 84° | 64° | 64° | 54° | 65° | 35° | 55° | 55° | 56° | 56° | 66° |
| 500 | 56° | 35° | 35° | 36° | 67° | 27° | 47° | 47° | 48° | 48° | 68° |
| 250 | 37° | 46° | 37° | 28° | 69° | 29° | 410° | 410° | 310° | 410° | 610° |
| ground (100 m) | 16° | 17° | 39° | 211° | 511° | 212° | 412° | 312° | 312° | 311° | 310° |
- Climb (m/s):
- 0.0–0.5
- 0.5–1.0
- 1.0–1.5
- 1.5–2.0
- 2.0–2.5
- 2.5–3.0
- 3.0–3.5
- 3.5–4.0
- ceiling
- 1350 m AMSL: airspace limit (climb-outs)
Model Comparison — Sun 18 Oct Wind and, in small print, gusts per model; the arrow points where the wind blows to.ICON: German weather service (DWD). Blends ICON-D2 (2 km) for the first 2 days with ICON-EU (7 km) and the global model (13 km); reaches about 7 days.ECMWF: European centre ECMWF, global model (here at 25 km). Often the most reliable for the overall weather pattern; reaches 15 days.GFS: US weather service (NOAA), global model (13–25 km); reaches 16 days.AROME: Météo-France: AROME (1.3–2.5 km) for the first 2 days, then ARPEGE; reaches about 4 days.HARMONIE: Dutch weather service (KNMI), HARMONIE-AROME (2–5.5 km) for about 2.5 days; further ahead based on ECMWF (up to 15 days).ICON-D2: DWD, 2 km over Germany and the Benelux, about 2 days ahead. (does not reach this day)AROME HD: Météo-France, 1.3 km, about 2 days ahead. (does not reach this day)HARMONIE NL: KNMI, 2 km, about 2.5 days ahead.UKMO 2 km: UK Met Office, 2 km, about 2 days ahead. (does not reach this day)ALARO: Belgian weather service (KMI/IRM), about 4 km, up to 2.5 days ahead. Open data, CC BY 4.0: opendata.meteo.be (does not reach this day)Only ICON, ECMWF, GFS, AROME and HARMONIE count towards the assessment. A model that does not reach this day gets no row; – means it does not reach that hour. Under each model name is when the model run shown started and when it came online at Open-Meteo. The ceiling rows show each model’s estimate (the lower of the boundary-layer height and the cloud base, above sea level); the text gives a range when they differ a lot.
| Model (kt) | 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Used in the assessment | |||||||||||
| ICONrun 15/10 20:00online 16/10 00:03 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 25 | 58 | 28 | 47 | 37 | 36 | 35 | 35 |
| ECMWFrun 15/10 14:00online 15/10 22:00 | 510 | 612 | 714 | 714 | 715 | 714 | 614 | 513 | 411 | 410 | 48 |
| GFSrun 15/10 14:00online 15/10 23:51 | 612 | 712 | 611 | 59 | 610 | 710 | 811 | 911 | 1012 | 812 | 816 |
| AROMErun 15/10 14:00online 15/10 18:15 | 23 | 36 | 47 | 48 | 48 | 49 | 48 | 48 | 610 | 711 | 711 |
| HARMONIErun 15/10 14:00online 15/10 22:00 | 510 | 511 | 714 | 714 | 714 | 715 | 614 | 612 | 512 | 39 | 35 |
| Extra: high resolution and KMI (not in the assessment) | |||||||||||
| HARMONIE NL | 412 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ceiling (estimate, m above sea level) | |||||||||||
| ICON | 112 m | 213 m | 412 m | 625 m | 812 m | 862 m | 925 m | 975 m | 975 m | 912 m | 600 m |
| ECMWF | 138 m | 175 m | 238 m | 313 m | 400 m | 475 m | 475 m | 425 m | 363 m | 300 m | 237 m |
| GFS | 313 m | 325 m | 410 m | 450 m | 505 m | 585 m | 970 m | 1200 m | 1162 m | 705 m | 305 m |
| AROME | 112 m | 125 m | 137 m | 150 m | 225 m | 362 m | 462 m | 613 m | 650 m | 675 m | 625 m |
| HARMONIE | 137 m | 175 m | 213 m | 300 m | 413 m | 450 m | 513 m | 475 m | 350 m | 250 m | 238 m |
Latest model data, newer than the text of 16/10 00:18. The numbers and colours can differ from the description and verdict above.
Sun 18 Oct
| 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assessment | marginal: models disagree on wind speed | marginal: models disagree on wind speed | marginal: models disagree on direction | marginal: models disagree on wind speed | good | marginal: models disagree on wind speed | good | good | good | good | marginal: wind at the top of the tow borderline |
| Wind (kt) | 4.8 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| Direction | NNE | NE | NE | NE | ENE | ENE | NE | ENE | ENE | ENE | ENE |
| Gust (kt) | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Crosswind (kt) | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Wind 925 hPa (kt)≈ 750 m | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Weather | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 8% | |||
| Low Cloud % | 65% | 51% | 76% | 55% | 53% | 50% | 35% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Ceiling (estimate) | 112 m ☁ | 213 m ☁ | 412 m ☁ | 625 m ☁ | 812 m ☁ | 862 m ☁ | 925 m ☁ | 975 m ☁ | 975 m ☁ | 841 m | 167 m |
| Thermals (m/s, estimate) | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
- Calm
- Light to moderate
- Strong but good
- Borderline
- Borderline, strong
- Too strong
Altitude profile and thermals (estimate) — Sun 18 Oct Wind per height above sea level (the field is at about 100 m) and estimated climb rate from the ICON model (including the heat flux). A rough estimate: meteo-parapente remains the reference for thermals and ceiling. Under the wind is the expected temperature at that height (°C); the ground row shows the wind at 10 m and the temperature at 2 m above the field.
| m AMSL (kt, °C) | 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 11-2° | 12-3° | 11-3° | 10-2° | 9-3° | 9-3° | 7-3° | 8-3° | 8-3° | 7-3° | 7-3° |
| 1750 | 14-1° | 13-1° | 12-1° | 10-1° | 10-2° | 9-1° | 8-1° | 8-2° | 8-2° | 7-2° | 7-2° |
| 1500 | 160° | 140° | 130° | 120° | 110° | 90° | 80° | 80° | 70° | 60° | 70° |
| 1250 | 141° | 132° | 122° | 112° | 91° | 72° | 62° | 72° | 62° | 62° | 72° |
| 1000 | 123° | 113° | 103° | 103° | 83° | 53° | 53° | 63° | 63° | 64° | 74° |
| 750 | 84° | 64° | 64° | 54° | 65° | 35° | 55° | 55° | 56° | 56° | 66° |
| 500 | 56° | 35° | 35° | 36° | 67° | 27° | 47° | 47° | 48° | 48° | 68° |
| 250 | 37° | 46° | 37° | 28° | 69° | 29° | 410° | 410° | 310° | 410° | 610° |
| ground (100 m) | 16° | 17° | 39° | 211° | 511° | 212° | 412° | 312° | 312° | 311° | 310° |
- Climb (m/s):
- 0.0–0.5
- 0.5–1.0
- 1.0–1.5
- 1.5–2.0
- 2.0–2.5
- 2.5–3.0
- 3.0–3.5
- 3.5–4.0
- ceiling
- 1350 m AMSL: airspace limit (climb-outs)
Model Comparison — Sun 18 Oct Wind and, in small print, gusts per model; the arrow points where the wind blows to.ICON: German weather service (DWD). Blends ICON-D2 (2 km) for the first 2 days with ICON-EU (7 km) and the global model (13 km); reaches about 7 days.ECMWF: European centre ECMWF, global model (here at 25 km). Often the most reliable for the overall weather pattern; reaches 15 days.GFS: US weather service (NOAA), global model (13–25 km); reaches 16 days.AROME: Météo-France: AROME (1.3–2.5 km) for the first 2 days, then ARPEGE; reaches about 4 days.HARMONIE: Dutch weather service (KNMI), HARMONIE-AROME (2–5.5 km) for about 2.5 days; further ahead based on ECMWF (up to 15 days).ICON-D2: DWD, 2 km over Germany and the Benelux, about 2 days ahead. (does not reach this day)AROME HD: Météo-France, 1.3 km, about 2 days ahead. (does not reach this day)HARMONIE NL: KNMI, 2 km, about 2.5 days ahead.UKMO 2 km: UK Met Office, 2 km, about 2 days ahead. (does not reach this day)ALARO: Belgian weather service (KMI/IRM), about 4 km, up to 2.5 days ahead. Open data, CC BY 4.0: opendata.meteo.be (does not reach this day)Only ICON, ECMWF, GFS, AROME and HARMONIE count towards the assessment. A model that does not reach this day gets no row; – means it does not reach that hour. Under each model name is when the model run shown started and when it came online at Open-Meteo. The ceiling rows show each model’s estimate (the lower of the boundary-layer height and the cloud base, above sea level); the text gives a range when they differ a lot.
| Model (kt) | 09:00 | 10:00 | 11:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Used in the assessment | |||||||||||
| ICONrun 15/10 23:00online 16/10 01:56 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 25 | 58 | 28 | 47 | 37 | 36 | 35 | 35 |
| ECMWFrun 15/10 20:00online 16/10 03:24 | 59 | 611 | 613 | 613 | 512 | 511 | 511 | 511 | 510 | 49 | 47 |
| GFSrun 15/10 20:00online 16/10 02:52 | 22 | 34 | 46 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 78 | 88 | 78 | 57 | 55 |
| AROMErun 15/10 20:00online 16/10 00:42 | 712 | 712 | 712 | 713 | 814 | 915 | 815 | 815 | 814 | 613 | 610 |
| HARMONIErun 15/10 20:00online 16/10 03:24 | 813 | 613 | 714 | 613 | 513 | 511 | 511 | 511 | 510 | 511 | 39 |
| Extra: high resolution and KMI (not in the assessment) | |||||||||||
| HARMONIE NL | 813 | 714 | 915 | 615 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ceiling (estimate, m above sea level) | |||||||||||
| ICON | 112 m | 213 m | 412 m | 625 m | 812 m | 862 m | 925 m | 975 m | 975 m | 912 m | 600 m |
| ECMWF | 162 m | 213 m | 275 m | 362 m | 475 m | 537 m | 562 m | 562 m | 538 m | 463 m | 388 m |
| GFS | 110 m | 275 m | 460 m | 610 m | 925 m | 1038 m | 1162 m | 1062 m | 900 m | 260 m | 160 m |
| AROME | 137 m | 162 m | 225 m | 337 m | 438 m | 600 m | 788 m | 863 m | 887 m | 888 m | 800 m |
| HARMONIE | 100 m | 125 m | 212 m | 300 m | 413 m | 512 m | 575 m | 600 m | 537 m | 475 m | 300 m |
This forecast and assessment were generated by Claude (AI) and are indicative only. Judging safety, and deciding whether to fly and winch, rests entirely with the individual pilots and winch operators.